{"registry": {"version": "global-driver-layer-v1", "display_phase": "Phase 4A · Global Driver Layer", "registry_status": "RESEARCH_DESIGN_NOT_PREREGISTERED_CONFIRMATION", "rate_types": {"Policy Rate": "央行指定政策工具", "Market Rate": "市场成交/报价利率", "LPR": "贷款市场报价利率", "Government Bond Yield": "指定期限国债到期收益率", "Real Rate": "指定预期/事后通胀口径的实际利率", "Mortgage Rate": "指定贷款期限、借款人、固定/浮动结构的房贷利率", "Credit Rate": "指定评级、期限与借款对象的信用融资利率"}, "rate_mappings": {"CN": {"rate_type": "LPR", "economic_role": "一年期贷款报价基准", "comparability_class": "CN_LPR_1Y", "known_limitations": ["不是其他国家政策利率的完全等价物", "不是七天逆回购", "2019-08-20前为基准贷款利率"]}, "US": {"rate_type": "Policy Rate", "economic_role": "联邦基金目标区间中点", "comparability_class": "US_FED_TARGET_MIDPOINT", "known_limitations": ["不是目标上限，也不是有效联邦基金市场利率", "1985-12-19前口径不同"]}, "XM": {"rate_type": "Policy Rate", "economic_role": "欧元区存款便利利率", "comparability_class": "EA_DEPOSIT_FACILITY", "known_limitations": ["2024-09-18以前BIS序列使用不同工具", "不能把工具切换当单次降息"]}, "JP": {"rate_type": "Policy Rate", "economic_role": "隔夜拆借目标 / 目标区间中点", "comparability_class": "JP_OVERNIGHT_TARGET", "known_limitations": ["已知2026-09-24生效变动晚于数值表，必须检查freshness", "无政策利率时期不能补齐为零"]}, "GB": {"rate_type": "Policy Rate", "economic_role": "Bank Rate", "comparability_class": "GB_BANK_RATE", "known_limitations": ["早期序列拼接不同工具"]}}, "drivers": {"interest_rates": {"label": "利率", "structural_meaning": "政策工具与融资基准必须分开，名义利率不等于实际利率", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}, "real_rates": {"label": "实际利率", "structural_meaning": "需同币种、同期限、同可知时点的通胀预期或保值债定义", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}, "inflation": {"label": "通胀", "structural_meaning": "总量、核心、商品与服务价格分别注册", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}, "growth": {"label": "增长", "structural_meaning": "工业生产不能代表GDP或全球增长", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}, "employment": {"label": "就业", "structural_meaning": "就业人数与失业率分别定义", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}, "credit": {"label": "信用", "structural_meaning": "存量、增量、价格与信用标准不混用", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}, "liquidity": {"label": "流动性", "structural_meaning": "央行资产、货币与市场流动性不同", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}, "yield_curve": {"label": "收益率曲线", "structural_meaning": "同日同币种同债种期限利差", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}, "fx": {"label": "汇率", "structural_meaning": "双边汇率、名义与实际有效汇率不同", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}, "energy": {"label": "能源", "structural_meaning": "Brent价格只是价格因子，不代表全球能源供需", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}, "industrial_commodities": {"label": "工业商品", "structural_meaning": "铜价格不是工业产出或实物需求", "region_scope": "must be bound per series", "required_fields": ["level", "direction", "pace", "historical_percentile", "trend", "cycle_state", "freshness", "region", "structural_meaning"]}}, "inflation": {"targets": ["Headline Inflation", "Core Inflation", "Goods Inflation", "Services Inflation"], "nodes": {"wage": {"label": "工资", "research_question": "单位劳动成本与生产率需联合研究", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}, "services": {"label": "服务", "research_question": "服务项价格，需分项权重", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}, "housing": {"label": "住房", "research_question": "租金与自有住房处理因国家而异", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}, "energy": {"label": "能源", "research_question": "油价到零售能源价格的税费、汇率与滞后", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}, "food": {"label": "食品", "research_question": "农业供给、天气、运输和食品权重", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}, "commodities": {"label": "原材料", "research_question": "投入成本与最终价格传导不同", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}, "fx": {"label": "汇率", "research_question": "进口依赖、计价货币及套期保值", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}, "demand": {"label": "需求", "research_question": "产出缺口估计会修订", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}, "supply": {"label": "供给", "research_question": "供应链、运力与产能约束", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}, "credit": {"label": "信用", "research_question": "信用需求与供给分别识别", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}, "expectations": {"label": "通胀预期", "research_question": "调查预期和盈亏平衡通胀含义不同", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "contribution": null}}, "attribution_status": "NOT_ESTIMATED", "rule": "No additive CPI contributions without aligned country-specific component weights and definitions"}, "commodities": {"OIL": {"label": "原油", "status": "PRICE_ONLY", "factors": {"supply": {"label": "供给", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "demand": {"label": "需求", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "inventory": {"label": "库存", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "capacity": {"label": "产能", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "capex": {"label": "投资 / Capex", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "real_rates": {"label": "实际利率", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "usd": {"label": "美元", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "global_growth": {"label": "全球增长", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "china_demand": {"label": "中国需求", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "event_risk": {"label": "地缘与事件风险", "status": "RISK_REGISTER_ONLY", "value": null}, "production": {"label": "产量", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}, "spare_capacity": {"label": "闲置产能", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}, "opec_supply": {"label": "OPEC 供给", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}, "us_production": {"label": "美国原油产量", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}}}, "GOLD": {"label": "黄金", "status": "PRICE_ONLY", "factors": {"supply": {"label": "供给", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "demand": {"label": "需求", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "inventory": {"label": "库存", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "capacity": {"label": "产能", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "capex": {"label": "投资 / Capex", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "real_rates": {"label": "实际利率", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "usd": {"label": "美元", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "global_growth": {"label": "全球增长", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "china_demand": {"label": "中国需求", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "event_risk": {"label": "地缘与事件风险", "status": "RISK_REGISTER_ONLY", "value": null}, "inflation": {"label": "通胀", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}, "inflation_expectations": {"label": "通胀预期", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}, "central_bank_demand": {"label": "央行黄金需求", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}, "risk_stress": {"label": "风险 / 压力", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}, "liquidity": {"label": "流动性", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}}}, "COPPER": {"label": "铜", "status": "PRICE_ONLY", "factors": {"supply": {"label": "供给", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "demand": {"label": "需求", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "inventory": {"label": "库存", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "capacity": {"label": "产能", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "capex": {"label": "投资 / Capex", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "real_rates": {"label": "实际利率", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "usd": {"label": "美元", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "global_growth": {"label": "全球增长", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "china_demand": {"label": "中国需求", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "event_risk": {"label": "地缘与事件风险", "status": "RISK_REGISTER_ONLY", "value": null}, "global_manufacturing": {"label": "全球制造业", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}, "production": {"label": "产量", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}, "mine_supply": {"label": "矿山供应", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "value": null}}}, "GAS": {"label": "天然气", "status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "factors": {"supply": {"label": "供给", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "demand": {"label": "需求", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "inventory": {"label": "库存", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "capacity": {"label": "产能", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "capex": {"label": "投资 / Capex", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "real_rates": {"label": "实际利率", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "usd": {"label": "美元", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "global_growth": {"label": "全球增长", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "china_demand": {"label": "中国需求", "status": "NOT_CONNECTED", "value": null}, "event_risk": {"label": "地缘与事件风险", "status": "RISK_REGISTER_ONLY", "value": null}}}}, "cycle_components": ["structural_trend", "long_cycle", "medium_cycle", "short_cycle", "temporary_shock", "noise"], "decomposition": {"identity": "Observed = Structural trend + Cycle + Temporary shock + Noise", "status": "CONCEPTUAL_NOT_IDENTIFIED", "domain_models": {"population": "cohort components / migration assumptions", "commodities": "capacity, investment and supply response; price movement proxies kept separate", "housing": "income, household formation and credit regime", "financial_markets": "expectations, liquidity and event shocks"}, "rule": "No shared fitted weights or causal labels; residual is not automatically a shock"}, "domains": {"macro": {"label": "宏观", "horizons_months": [3, 6, 12, 24], "frequency": "monthly", "status": "RESEARCH_INTERFACE", "minimum_nonoverlap": 12}, "rates": {"label": "利率", "horizons_months": [3, 6, 12, 24], "frequency": "monthly", "status": "OBSERVATION_AND_SCENARIO", "minimum_nonoverlap": 12}, "inflation": {"label": "通胀", "horizons_months": [3, 6, 12, 24], "frequency": "monthly", "status": "PARTIAL_US_OBSERVATION", "minimum_nonoverlap": 12}, "commodities": {"label": "商品", "horizons_months": [3, 6, 12, 24, 36], "frequency": "monthly", "status": "PRICE_OBSERVATION_AND_SUPPLY_DEMAND_SCENARIO", "minimum_nonoverlap": 12}, "housing": {"label": "房地产", "horizons_months": [12, 24, 36, 60], "frequency": "quarterly", "status": "INTERFACE_ONLY", "minimum_nonoverlap": 10}, "population": {"label": "人口", "horizons_months": [12, 36, 60, 120, 240], "frequency": "annual", "status": "INTERFACE_ONLY", "minimum_nonoverlap": 8}}, "relationships": [{"id": "rates__credit", "from": "rates", "to": "credit", "expected_direction": "条件性负向", "hypothesized_lag": "1–12个月", "confounders": "货币政策反应、信用需求、银行资本", "status": "RESEARCH_RELATIONSHIP", "causal_evidence": false, "historical_stability": null, "estimated_lag": null, "regime_results": [], "test_plan": "Freeze country, definition and lag grid; compare rolling and regime-specific results using as-of data; cluster shared shocks and reserve confirmation set"}, {"id": "credit__housing", "from": "credit", "to": "housing", "expected_direction": "条件性正向", "hypothesized_lag": "3–24个月", "confounders": "供地、收入、银行信贷标准", "status": "RESEARCH_RELATIONSHIP", "causal_evidence": false, "historical_stability": null, "estimated_lag": null, "regime_results": [], "test_plan": "Freeze country, definition and lag grid; compare rolling and regime-specific results using as-of data; cluster shared shocks and reserve confirmation set"}, {"id": "real_rates__gold", "from": "real_rates", "to": "gold", "expected_direction": "条件性负向", "hypothesized_lag": "0–12个月", "confounders": "避险、央行购金、汇率与风险溢价", "status": "RESEARCH_RELATIONSHIP", "causal_evidence": false, "historical_stability": null, "estimated_lag": null, "regime_results": [], "test_plan": "Freeze country, definition and lag grid; compare rolling and regime-specific results using as-of data; cluster shared shocks and reserve confirmation set"}, {"id": "usd__commodities", "from": "usd", "to": "commodities", "expected_direction": "条件性负向", "hypothesized_lag": "0–12个月", "confounders": "全球风险、供给冲击、计价效应", "status": "RESEARCH_RELATIONSHIP", "causal_evidence": false, "historical_stability": null, "estimated_lag": null, "regime_results": [], "test_plan": "Freeze country, definition and lag grid; compare rolling and regime-specific results using as-of data; cluster shared shocks and reserve confirmation set"}, {"id": "energy__inflation", "from": "energy", "to": "inflation", "expected_direction": "条件性正向", "hypothesized_lag": "0–12个月", "confounders": "税费、汇率、价格管制、基数效应", "status": "RESEARCH_RELATIONSHIP", "causal_evidence": false, "historical_stability": null, "estimated_lag": null, "regime_results": [], "test_plan": "Freeze country, definition and lag grid; compare rolling and regime-specific results using as-of data; cluster shared shocks and reserve confirmation set"}, {"id": "wages__services_inflation", "from": "wages", "to": "services_inflation", "expected_direction": "条件性正向", "hypothesized_lag": "3–24个月", "confounders": "生产率、利润率和反向工资响应", "status": "RESEARCH_RELATIONSHIP", "causal_evidence": false, "historical_stability": null, "estimated_lag": null, "regime_results": [], "test_plan": "Freeze country, definition and lag grid; compare rolling and regime-specific results using as-of data; cluster shared shocks and reserve confirmation set"}, {"id": "growth__industrial_commodities", "from": "growth", "to": "industrial_commodities", "expected_direction": "条件性正向", "hypothesized_lag": "0–18个月", "confounders": "库存周期、产能、共同全球冲击", "status": "RESEARCH_RELATIONSHIP", "causal_evidence": false, "historical_stability": null, "estimated_lag": null, "regime_results": [], "test_plan": "Freeze country, definition and lag grid; compare rolling and regime-specific results using as-of data; cluster shared shocks and reserve confirmation set"}, {"id": "china_growth__copper", "from": "china_growth", "to": "copper", "expected_direction": "条件性正向", "hypothesized_lag": "0–18个月", "confounders": "行业构成、进口替代、供应扩张", "status": "RESEARCH_RELATIONSHIP", "causal_evidence": false, "historical_stability": null, "estimated_lag": null, "regime_results": [], "test_plan": "Freeze country, definition and lag grid; compare rolling and regime-specific results using as-of data; cluster shared shocks and reserve confirmation set"}, {"id": "population__housing_demand", "from": "population", "to": "housing_demand", "expected_direction": "依年龄结构/家庭形成而定", "hypothesized_lag": "3–20年", "confounders": "迁移、城市结构、户均人数与空置", "status": "RESEARCH_RELATIONSHIP", "causal_evidence": false, "historical_stability": null, "estimated_lag": null, "regime_results": [], "test_plan": "Freeze country, definition and lag grid; compare rolling and regime-specific results using as-of data; cluster shared shocks and reserve confirmation set"}], "housing_interface": {"status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "drivers": ["Population", "Household Formation", "Income", "Employment", "Mortgage Rates", "Credit", "Inventory", "Construction", "Sales", "Rent", "Price-to-Income", "Price-to-Rent", "Land", "Urban Migration", "Policy"], "china_dimensions": ["城市层级", "土地财政", "新房/二手房", "库存", "人口流动"], "required_keys": ["country", "city", "segment", "nominal_or_real", "source_vintage", "release_date", "region", "housing_type"], "rule": "National HPI cannot substitute city or segment data"}, "population_interface": {"status": "NOT_AVAILABLE", "drivers": ["Births", "Deaths", "Age Structure", "Migration", "Labor Force", "Household Formation"], "required_keys": ["official_baseline", "official_edition", "model_scenario", "migration_assumptions", "fertility_assumptions", "mortality_assumptions", "country", "region", "geographic_level", "age_cohort", "migration_definition"], "precision": "Annual rounded levels, not high-precision financial probabilities", "geographic_levels": ["national", "regional"]}, "evidence_levels": ["VALIDATED", "EXPERIMENTAL", "UNRELIABLE", "UNAVAILABLE", "STRUCTURAL_SCENARIO"], "promotion": "never automatic", "scenario_probability_policy": "Without audited statistical evidence, probabilities are null and scenario weighting not validated", "validation_policy": {"horizons_months": [3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 60, 120, 240], "grouping": ["region", "entity_id", "target", "horizon_months", "definition_id", "model_version", "basis", "protocol_id"], "independence": ["nonoverlapping_periods", "economic_episodes", "independent_regime_transitions"], "scenario_calibration": "requires mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcome definitions, frozen probabilistic forecasts, mature outcomes and separate horizon scoring; no narrative-case calibration"}}, "as_of": "2026-10-02T00:56:03.937622+00:00", "observations": [{"id": "RATE_CN", "driver": "interest_rates", "country": "CN", "region": "CN", "name": "中国 · 贷款市场报价利率 LPR（一年期）", "rate_type": "LPR", "economic_role": "一年期贷款报价基准", "comparability_class": "CN_LPR_1Y", "known_limitations": ["不是其他国家政策利率的完全等价物", "不是七天逆回购", "2019-08-20前为基准贷款利率"], "source": 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