此页仅展示原账本。World View 服务只更新 BIS 与世界银行，不执行美国预测账本更新；下述美国检查日期是原运行记录。

CycleMind：预测能力与实时成绩

已验证预测 0 · 实时验证目标 0。当前仅供实验观察，不能把模型概率当作已验证的发生频率。点预测与预测分布分别分级。

分级规则 3D-grade-v1：任一档历史覆盖率低于标称超过10个百分点，分布标记 UNRELIABLE；其余保持 EXPERIMENTAL。此阈值是回顾性风险提示，不是独立统计验证，也不自动产生 VALIDATED。

更新检查已逾期：等待补跑，当前数据可能过期。

最近官方更新检查：2026-09-22T12:37:43.576934+00:00；下次：2026-09-29。本地程序运行时按日历更新；关机后需重新启动补查。

各目标与期限状态

指标	3个月	6个月	12个月
美国失业率	EXPERIMENTAL	UNRELIABLE	UNRELIABLE
工业生产	EXPERIMENTAL	EXPERIMENTAL	EXPERIMENTAL
非农就业	UNRELIABLE	UNRELIABLE	UNRELIABLE
CPI 通胀	EXPERIMENTAL	EXPERIMENTAL	EXPERIMENTAL

UNRELIABLE 指当前分布；仍可查看明确标注的实验点预测。不存在可靠期限时，不用其它期限替代为已验证结果。

预测期限显示范围

美国失业率 · 3个月

整体：EXPERIMENTAL；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：EXPERIMENTAL

未见严重欠覆盖阈值不等于验证通过；独立确认样本为0

最新保存官方值：4.1000（Percent）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-04

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-04；目标月：2026-12。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：4.000；失业率百分比

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 0.565，RMSE 1.588，CRPS 0.509。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：51.7% / 0.371；80%：73.0% / 1.010；95%：91.4% / 4.409

历史月度起点 174；固定非重叠起点 58（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

EXPERIMENTAL：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
      3.8,
      4.125
    ],
    "0.8": [
      3.3,
      4.3100000000000005
    ],
    "0.95": [
      0.5850000000000022,
      9.944999999999983
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  },
  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 4.1,
    "down": 0.6166666666666667,
    "equal": 0.13333333333333333,
    "relation": "above",
    "threshold": 4.6,
    "threshold_event": 0.041666666666666664,
    "up": 0.25
  }
}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

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  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
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  "independent_historical_n": 0,
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      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 0.16449033816425115,
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        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
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        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
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  "lag1": 0.685454234826461,
  "signed_bias": -0.025287356321839236,
  "conclusion": "可查看实验点预测；概率可靠性与跨时期稳定性未独立确认。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

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          {
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            "upper": 0.9
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          {
            "lower": 0.9,
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        ],
        "event_brier": 0.04302003512132822,
        "event_ece": 0.09937739463601529,
        "mae": 0.564942528735632,
        "mae_block_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 174,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.19854885057471267,
          "observed_months": 174,
          "p_value": 0.039,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 1.187456896551724
        },
        "n": 174,
        "pi50": {
          "coverage": 0.5172413793103449,
          "coverage_ci95": {
            "block_months": 24,
            "calendar_months": 174,
            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.3448275862068966,
            "observed_months": 174,
            "p_value": 0.0005,
            "repetitions": 1999,
            "status": "computed",
            "upper95": 0.6954022988505747
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          "n": 174,
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        "pi80": {
          "coverage": 0.7298850574712644,
          "coverage_ci95": {
            "block_months": 24,
            "calendar_months": 174,
            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.5574712643678161,
            "observed_months": 174,
            "p_value": 0.0005,
            "repetitions": 1999,
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            "upper95": 0.8793103448275862
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          "n": 174,
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        },
        "pi95": {
          "coverage": 0.9137931034482759,
          "coverage_ci95": {
            "block_months": 24,
            "calendar_months": 174,
            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.7931034482758621,
            "observed_months": 174,
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            "repetitions": 1999,
            "status": "computed",
            "upper95": 1.0
          },
          "n": 174,
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        "positive_origin_months": 5,
        "positive_spells": 1,
        "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
        "raw_point_mae": 0.582758620689655,
        "rmse": 1.587649893366937,
        "start": "2011-01-28",
        "status": "computed",
        "training_scaled_mae": 1.6471455402935866
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      "horizon": 3,
      "model": "persistence",
      "nonoverlapping": {
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        "direction_accuracy": 0.7931034482758621,
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        "event_bins": [
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        ],
        "event_brier": 0.04904214559386974,
        "event_ece": 0.10632183908045979,
        "mae": 0.6232758620689653,
        "mae_block_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 172,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.1921052631578946,
          "observed_months": 58,
          "p_value": 0.0505,
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          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 1.3621434833430741
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        "n": 58,
        "pi50": {
          "coverage": 0.5344827586206896,
          "coverage_ci95": {
            "block_months": 24,
            "calendar_months": 172,
            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.3333333333333333,
            "observed_months": 58,
            "p_value": 0.0005,
            "repetitions": 1999,
            "status": "computed",
            "upper95": 0.7413793103448276
          },
          "n": 58,
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        },
        "pi80": {
          "coverage": 0.7241379310344828,
          "coverage_ci95": {
            "block_months": 24,
            "calendar_months": 172,
            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.5517241379310345,
            "observed_months": 58,
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            "repetitions": 1999,
            "status": "computed",
            "upper95": 0.8793103448275862
          },
          "n": 58,
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        },
        "pi95": {
          "coverage": 0.9137931034482759,
          "coverage_ci95": {
            "block_months": 24,
            "calendar_months": 172,
            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.7931034482758621,
            "observed_months": 58,
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            "status": "computed",
            "upper95": 1.0
          },
          "n": 58,
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        "positive_origin_months": 2,
        "positive_spells": 2,
        "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
        "raw_point_mae": 0.6448275862068965,
        "rmse": 1.8080638339356845,
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        "status": "computed",
        "training_scaled_mae": 1.825521041381586
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      "series": "UNRATE",
      "split": "locked_historical_holdout",
      "vs_historical_mean": {
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        "crps_improvement_ci95": {
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          "calendar_months": 174,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0017829926859705472,
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          "p_value": 0.002,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.006468200103193859
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        "crps_n": 174,
        "mae_improvement": 0.005196642055667397,
        "mae_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 174,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0006941398695014209,
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          "p_value": 0.005,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.009227516822776597
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        "n": 174,
        "relative_mae_improvement": 0.009114690450850704
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      "vs_persistence": {
        "crps_improvement": 0.0,
        "crps_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 174,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0,
          "observed_months": 174,
          "p_value": 1.0,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
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        },
        "crps_n": 174,
        "mae_improvement": 0.0,
        "mae_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 174,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0,
          "observed_months": 174,
          "p_value": 1.0,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.0
        },
        "n": 174,
        "relative_mae_improvement": 0.0
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    },
    "horizon": 3,
    "information_cutoff": "2026-09-04",
    "input": {
      "actual": {
        "available_from": "2026-09-04",
        "available_to": "9999-12-31",
        "kind": "alfred_interval",
        "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
        "release_date": null,
        "request_id": "4f2dc8111805d3dfc35d4421a468e863e071f4527d0c3e62ffd9502e0a015713",
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        "value": 4.1
      },
      "age_days": 34,
      "anchor_month": "2026-08",
      "baseline": 4.1,
      "checksum": "9efc17e8919ea04113585fbbbcd1310d29bab6be7bedd3407d4f3df2bc4b5d4b",
      "event": "above",
      "input_rows": [
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      ],
      "metadata": {
        "frequency": "Monthly",
        "provider": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "release": "Employment Situation",
        "seasonal_adjustment": "Seasonally Adjusted",
        "title": "Unemployment Rate",
        "units": "Percent"
      },
      "reference": 4.1,
      "threshold": 4.6
    },
    "latest_actual": {
      "available_from": "2026-09-04",
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      "kind": "alfred_interval",
      "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
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      "request_id": "4f2dc8111805d3dfc35d4421a468e863e071f4527d0c3e62ffd9502e0a015713",
      "series_id": "UNRATE",
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    "limitations": [
      "No demonstrated predictive edge; unvalidated event probabilities",
      "Day-end archive availability, not intraday publisher timestamp",
      "Information set stops at official metadata coverage; no extrapolation through requested cutoff",
      "First archive availability is not proven first publisher release",
      "Overlapping residuals; no coverage guarantee; no parameter CI or probability uncertainty estimate",
      "Calibration uses frozen Phase 3B 90-day labels; new live labels are not yet available",
      "Growth horizon is measured from origin month; anchor can precede origin",
      "Historical performance is retrospective, not live performance"
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    "model_id": "persistence",
    "model_version": "3C.1.0",
    "origin_month": "2026-09",
    "outcome_definition": "UNRATE target level; other targets annualized log growth from anchor to target, both endpoints in outcome vintage",
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    "predictive_distribution": {
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      "uncertainty_limit": "Predictive residual distribution only; no exchangeability or coverage guarantee"
    },
    "primary_scoring_vintage": "target month end + 90 days; first archive and later revisions are separate diagnostics",
    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
    "requested_information_cutoff": "2026-09-21",
    "target_date": "2026-12-31",
    "target_definition": {
      "event": "above",
      "measure": "level",
      "name": "Unemployment rate",
      "threshold_change": 0.5,
      "units": "percent"
    },
    "target_id": "UNRATE",
    "target_month": "2026-12",
    "units": "percent",
    "validation_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
  },
  "publisher_evidence": {
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    "evidence_file": "reports/phase3c1/release-web-evidence.json",
    "evidence_retrieved_at": null,
    "evidence_time_note": "Web connector does not expose exact retrieval time; verified_at is local registration time",
    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
    "release_date": "2026-09-04",
    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
    "scope": "Publisher date of the August 2026 release; not proof of every later revised value",
    "series_id": "UNRATE",
    "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm",
    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.830138+00:00"
  }
}

美国失业率 · 6个月

整体：UNRELIABLE；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：UNRELIABLE

历史覆盖率低于标称超过10个百分点：pi80, pi95

最新保存官方值：4.1000（Percent）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-04

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-04；目标月：2027-03。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：3.950；失业率百分比

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 0.794，RMSE 1.842，CRPS 0.722。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：42.7% / 0.552；80%：63.7% / 1.752；95%：81.9% / 5.297

历史月度起点 171；固定非重叠起点 29（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

UNRELIABLE：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
      3.6999999999999997,
      4.199999999999999
    ],
    "0.8": [
      2.6999999999999993,
      4.499999999999999
    ],
    "0.95": [
      0.0975000000000008,
      10.822499999999991
    ]
  },
  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 4.1,
    "down": 0.65,
    "equal": 0.08333333333333333,
    "relation": "above",
    "threshold": 4.6,
    "threshold_event": 0.075,
    "up": 0.26666666666666666
  }
}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

{
  "target": "UNRATE",
  "horizon": 6,
  "status": "UNRELIABLE",
  "point_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "distribution_status": "UNRELIABLE",
  "reasons": [
    "历史覆盖率低于标称超过10个百分点：pi80, pi95"
  ],
  "forecast_id": "b39329bb911d5c335291802bcb7238fe194180db07982c121db3d97d4636365e",
  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
  "live_status": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "independent_historical_n": 0,
  "independent_shocks_n": null,
  "monthly_n": 171,
  "nonoverlapping_n": 29,
  "current": {
    "crps": 0.7219030214424952,
    "direction_accuracy": 0.7953216374269005,
    "direction_brier": 0.21252599090318391,
    "distribution_n": 171,
    "end": "2025-03-28",
    "event_bins": [
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        "lower": 0.0,
        "mean_probability": 0.05833333333333335,
        "n": 71,
        "observed_rate": 0.1267605633802817,
        "sparse": false,
        "upper": 0.1
      },
      {
        "lower": 0.1,
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      },
      {
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        "upper": 0.6
      },
      {
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        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 0.7
      },
      {
        "lower": 0.7,
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        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 0.8
      },
      {
        "lower": 0.8,
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        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 0.9
      },
      {
        "lower": 0.9,
        "mean_probability": null,
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        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "event_brier": 0.06942089018843406,
    "event_ece": 0.13070175438596493,
    "mae": 0.7941520467836256,
    "mae_block_ci95": {
      "block_months": 24,
      "calendar_months": 171,
      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
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      "status": "computed",
      "training_scaled_mae": 0.7282118434453669,
      "year": "2025"
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  ],
  "crisis_excluded": {
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    "event_bins": [
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      {
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      {
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      {
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        "sparse": true,
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    "event_ece": 0.13687943262411348,
    "mae": 0.3205673758865249,
    "mae_block_ci95": {
      "block_months": 24,
      "calendar_months": 171,
      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 0.2128082386363638,
      "observed_months": 141,
      "p_value": 0.0005,
      "repetitions": 1999,
      "status": "computed",
      "upper95": 0.4219921112556928
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    "n": 141,
    "pi50": {
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      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 171,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.268970189701897,
        "observed_months": 141,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.7455105853051058
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      "n": 141,
      "width": 0.5874113475177303
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    "pi80": {
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      "coverage_ci95": {
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        "calendar_months": 171,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.592085798816568,
        "observed_months": 141,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.9096774193548387
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      "n": 141,
      "width": 1.9407801418439723
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    "pi95": {
      "coverage": 0.9148936170212766,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 171,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.8221963824289406,
        "observed_months": 141,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 1.0
      },
      "n": 141,
      "width": 5.276578014184392
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    "positive_origin_months": 1,
    "positive_spells": 1,
    "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
    "raw_point_mae": 0.3333333333333333,
    "rmse": 0.39982265572171966,
    "start": "2011-01-28",
    "status": "computed",
    "training_scaled_mae": 0.5849369624939239
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  "lag1": 0.7824705025181055,
  "signed_bias": -0.05087719298245618,
  "conclusion": "仅供实验点预测；未证明稳定独立优势。分布严重欠覆盖。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

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            "status": "computed",
            "upper95": 0.7857142857142857
          },
          "n": 29,
          "width": 0.5534482758620689
        },
        "pi80": {
          "coverage": 0.7241379310344828,
          "coverage_ci95": {
            "block_months": 24,
            "calendar_months": 169,
            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.5172413793103449,
            "observed_months": 29,
            "p_value": 0.0005,
            "repetitions": 1999,
            "status": "computed",
            "upper95": 0.896551724137931
          },
          "n": 29,
          "width": 1.7700000000000002
        },
        "pi95": {
          "coverage": 0.8275862068965517,
          "coverage_ci95": {
            "block_months": 24,
            "calendar_months": 169,
            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.6546718576195774,
            "observed_months": 29,
            "p_value": 0.0005,
            "repetitions": 1999,
            "status": "computed",
            "upper95": 0.9655172413793104
          },
          "n": 29,
          "width": 5.280172413793099
        },
        "positive_origin_months": 2,
        "positive_spells": 2,
        "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
        "raw_point_mae": 0.7689655172413792,
        "rmse": 1.6222855312267277,
        "start": "2011-01-28",
        "status": "computed",
        "training_scaled_mae": 1.3976530585248381
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      "series": "UNRATE",
      "split": "locked_historical_holdout",
      "vs_historical_mean": {
        "crps_improvement": 0.01066181727103248,
        "crps_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 171,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.005762686094375536,
          "observed_months": 171,
          "p_value": 0.001,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.016069367266474573
        },
        "crps_n": 171,
        "mae_improvement": 0.01890162328774903,
        "mae_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 171,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.006770307997833555,
          "observed_months": 171,
          "p_value": 0.0035,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.03247582666327246
        },
        "n": 171,
        "relative_mae_improvement": 0.023247694443209056
      },
      "vs_persistence": {
        "crps_improvement": 0.0,
        "crps_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 171,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0,
          "observed_months": 171,
          "p_value": 1.0,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.0
        },
        "crps_n": 171,
        "mae_improvement": 0.0,
        "mae_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 171,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0,
          "observed_months": 171,
          "p_value": 1.0,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.0
        },
        "n": 171,
        "relative_mae_improvement": 0.0
      }
    },
    "horizon": 6,
    "information_cutoff": "2026-09-04",
    "input": {
      "actual": {
        "available_from": "2026-09-04",
        "available_to": "9999-12-31",
        "kind": "alfred_interval",
        "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
        "release_date": null,
        "request_id": "4f2dc8111805d3dfc35d4421a468e863e071f4527d0c3e62ffd9502e0a015713",
        "series_id": "UNRATE",
        "value": 4.1
      },
      "age_days": 34,
      "anchor_month": "2026-08",
      "baseline": 4.1,
      "checksum": "9efc17e8919ea04113585fbbbcd1310d29bab6be7bedd3407d4f3df2bc4b5d4b",
      "event": "above",
      "input_rows": [
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          "series_id": "UNRATE",
          "value": 4.1
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      ],
      "metadata": {
        "frequency": "Monthly",
        "provider": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "release": "Employment Situation",
        "seasonal_adjustment": "Seasonally Adjusted",
        "title": "Unemployment Rate",
        "units": "Percent"
      },
      "reference": 4.1,
      "threshold": 4.6
    },
    "latest_actual": {
      "available_from": "2026-09-04",
      "available_to": "9999-12-31",
      "kind": "alfred_interval",
      "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
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      "request_id": "4f2dc8111805d3dfc35d4421a468e863e071f4527d0c3e62ffd9502e0a015713",
      "series_id": "UNRATE",
      "value": 4.1
    },
    "limitations": [
      "No demonstrated predictive edge; unvalidated event probabilities",
      "Day-end archive availability, not intraday publisher timestamp",
      "Information set stops at official metadata coverage; no extrapolation through requested cutoff",
      "First archive availability is not proven first publisher release",
      "Overlapping residuals; no coverage guarantee; no parameter CI or probability uncertainty estimate",
      "Calibration uses frozen Phase 3B 90-day labels; new live labels are not yet available",
      "Growth horizon is measured from origin month; anchor can precede origin",
      "Historical performance is retrospective, not live performance"
    ],
    "model_id": "persistence",
    "model_version": "3C.1.0",
    "origin_month": "2026-09",
    "outcome_definition": "UNRATE target level; other targets annualized log growth from anchor to target, both endpoints in outcome vintage",
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    "predictive_distribution": {
      "censored_mass": 0.025,
      "family": "prequential_empirical",
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      "prediction_intervals": {
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        "0.95": [
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      "probability_estimate_uncertainty": null,
      "support": [
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      "uncertainty_limit": "Predictive residual distribution only; no exchangeability or coverage guarantee"
    },
    "primary_scoring_vintage": "target month end + 90 days; first archive and later revisions are separate diagnostics",
    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
    "requested_information_cutoff": "2026-09-21",
    "target_date": "2027-03-31",
    "target_definition": {
      "event": "above",
      "measure": "level",
      "name": "Unemployment rate",
      "threshold_change": 0.5,
      "units": "percent"
    },
    "target_id": "UNRATE",
    "target_month": "2027-03",
    "units": "percent",
    "validation_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
  },
  "publisher_evidence": {
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    "evidence_file": "reports/phase3c1/release-web-evidence.json",
    "evidence_retrieved_at": null,
    "evidence_time_note": "Web connector does not expose exact retrieval time; verified_at is local registration time",
    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
    "release_date": "2026-09-04",
    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
    "scope": "Publisher date of the August 2026 release; not proof of every later revised value",
    "series_id": "UNRATE",
    "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm",
    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.830138+00:00"
  }
}

美国失业率 · 12个月

整体：UNRELIABLE；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：UNRELIABLE

历史覆盖率低于标称超过10个百分点：pi50, pi80, pi95

最新保存官方值：4.1000（Percent）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-04

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-04；目标月：2027-09。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：3.800；失业率百分比

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 1.205，RMSE 2.157，CRPS 1.065。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：30.9% / 0.947；80%：60.0% / 3.226；95%：69.7% / 6.328

历史月度起点 165；固定非重叠起点 14（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

UNRELIABLE：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
      3.3999999999999995,
      4.3999999999999995
    ],
    "0.8": [
      1.689999999999999,
      5.880000000000006
    ],
    "0.95": [
      0.0,
      10.62499999999999
    ]
  },
  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 4.1,
    "down": 0.65,
    "equal": 0.03333333333333333,
    "relation": "above",
    "threshold": 4.6,
    "threshold_event": 0.14166666666666666,
    "up": 0.31666666666666665
  }
}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

{
  "target": "UNRATE",
  "horizon": 12,
  "status": "UNRELIABLE",
  "point_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "distribution_status": "UNRELIABLE",
  "reasons": [
    "历史覆盖率低于标称超过10个百分点：pi50, pi80, pi95"
  ],
  "forecast_id": "5925c98180e75f24e64e5349fe76aeb0315f34e3a6f5be27c52079411ab94502",
  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
  "live_status": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "independent_historical_n": 0,
  "independent_shocks_n": null,
  "monthly_n": 165,
  "nonoverlapping_n": 14,
  "current": {
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    "direction_accuracy": 0.703030303030303,
    "direction_brier": 0.25062542087542083,
    "distribution_n": 165,
    "end": "2024-09-27",
    "event_bins": [
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        "lower": 0.0,
        "mean_probability": 0.05416666666666666,
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        "observed_rate": 0.35,
        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 0.1
      },
      {
        "lower": 0.1,
        "mean_probability": 0.12421383647798742,
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      },
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      },
      {
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        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 0.7
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      {
        "lower": 0.7,
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        "upper": 0.8
      },
      {
        "lower": 0.8,
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        "upper": 0.9
      },
      {
        "lower": 0.9,
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        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 1.0
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    ],
    "event_brier": 0.1250732323232323,
    "event_ece": 0.19676767676767679,
    "mae": 1.2045454545454546,
    "mae_block_ci95": {
      "block_months": 24,
      "calendar_months": 165,
      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 0.49393939393939396,
      "observed_months": 165,
      "p_value": 0.008,
      "repetitions": 1999,
      "status": "computed",
      "upper95": 2.147424242424242
    },
    "n": 165,
    "pi50": {
      "coverage": 0.3090909090909091,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 165,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.06060606060606061,
        "observed_months": 165,
        "p_value": 0.021,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.593939393939394
      },
      "n": 165,
      "width": 0.9472727272727274
    },
    "pi80": {
      "coverage": 0.6,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 165,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.3393939393939394,
        "observed_months": 165,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.8548484848484845
      },
      "n": 165,
      "width": 3.2264242424242444
    },
    "pi95": {
      "coverage": 0.696969696969697,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 165,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.48484848484848486,
        "observed_months": 165,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.896969696969697
      },
      "n": 165,
      "width": 6.328015151515149
    },
    "positive_origin_months": 17,
    "positive_spells": 3,
    "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
    "raw_point_mae": 1.2454545454545454,
    "rmse": 2.156803892407242,
    "start": "2011-01-28",
    "status": "computed",
    "training_scaled_mae": 1.4120431909535387
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    "direction_accuracy": 0.703030303030303,
    "direction_brier": 0.25062542087542083,
    "distribution_n": 165,
    "end": "2024-09-27",
    "event_bins": [
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        "mean_probability": 0.05416666666666666,
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        "observed_rate": 0.35,
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      {
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      },
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      },
      {
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        "mean_probability": 0.3470588235294118,
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      {
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        "upper": 0.6
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      {
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        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 0.7
      },
      {
        "lower": 0.7,
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        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 0.8
      },
      {
        "lower": 0.8,
        "mean_probability": null,
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        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 0.9
      },
      {
        "lower": 0.9,
        "mean_probability": null,
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        "sparse": true,
        "upper": 1.0
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    ],
    "event_brier": 0.1250732323232323,
    "event_ece": 0.19676767676767679,
    "mae": 1.2045454545454546,
    "mae_block_ci95": {
      "block_months": 24,
      "calendar_months": 165,
      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 0.49393939393939396,
      "observed_months": 165,
      "p_value": 0.008,
      "repetitions": 1999,
      "status": "computed",
      "upper95": 2.147424242424242
    },
    "n": 165,
    "pi50": {
      "coverage": 0.3090909090909091,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 165,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.06060606060606061,
        "observed_months": 165,
        "p_value": 0.021,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.593939393939394
      },
      "n": 165,
      "width": 0.9472727272727274
    },
    "pi80": {
      "coverage": 0.6,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 165,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.3393939393939394,
        "observed_months": 165,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
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      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
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  "lag1": 0.8390304987994074,
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  "conclusion": "仅供实验点预测；未证明稳定独立优势。分布严重欠覆盖。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

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        "n": 129,
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            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.06831547391248885,
            "observed_months": 129,
            "p_value": 0.0185,
            "repetitions": 1999,
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            "upper95": 0.7241810344827586
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        "pi80": {
          "coverage": 0.7209302325581395,
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            "block_months": 24,
            "calendar_months": 165,
            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.44233979790372185,
            "observed_months": 129,
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          "n": 129,
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        "pi95": {
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        "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
        "raw_point_mae": 0.6077519379844961,
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        "training_scaled_mae": 0.6668899807148808
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        "crps_n": 165,
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        "n": 165,
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    "information_cutoff": "2026-09-04",
    "input": {
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    },
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    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
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    "target_month": "2027-09",
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    "validation_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
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  "publisher_evidence": {
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    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
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    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.830138+00:00"
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}

工业生产 · 3个月

整体：EXPERIMENTAL；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：EXPERIMENTAL

未见严重欠覆盖阈值不等于验证通过；独立确认样本为0

最新保存官方值：103.0682（Index 2017=100）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-18

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-18；目标月：2026-12。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：1.677；从最新观察月到目标月的年化对数增长率（%），不是水平值或同比率

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 3.850，RMSE 8.206，CRPS 3.142。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：54.7% / 5.094；80%：85.5% / 9.802；95%：93.3% / 24.250

历史月度起点 179；固定非重叠起点 60（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

EXPERIMENTAL：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
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    "0.8": [
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    ],
    "0.95": [
      -16.364470431077564,
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  },
  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 0.0,
    "down": 0.30833333333333335,
    "equal": 0.0,
    "relation": "below",
    "threshold": 0.0,
    "threshold_event": 0.30833333333333335,
    "up": 0.6916666666666667
  }
}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

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      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
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  "lag1": 0.7410086411689303,
  "signed_bias": 1.037976661790418,
  "conclusion": "可查看实验点预测；概率可靠性与跨时期稳定性未独立确认。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

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          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 2.0994012300263307,
          "observed_months": 179,
          "p_value": 0.0095,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 6.801068318848339
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        "n": 179,
        "pi50": {
          "coverage": 0.547486033519553,
          "coverage_ci95": {
            "block_months": 24,
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            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.40555555555555556,
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            "upper95": 0.6780565606551132
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          "n": 179,
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        "pi80": {
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            "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
            "lower95": 0.7262569832402235,
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            "upper95": 0.9550687339150085
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          "n": 179,
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        "pi95": {
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          "n": 179,
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        "positive_origin_months": 50,
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      "vs_persistence": {
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          "lower95": 0.0,
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        "crps_n": 179,
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        "mae_improvement_ci95": {
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          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
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        "n": 179,
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    "horizon": 3,
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    "input": {
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      "Overlapping residuals; no coverage guarantee; no parameter CI or probability uncertainty estimate",
      "Calibration uses frozen Phase 3B 90-day labels; new live labels are not yet available",
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    "target_id": "INDPRO",
    "target_month": "2026-12",
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  "publisher_evidence": {
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    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
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    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
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    "series_id": "INDPRO",
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    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.912775+00:00"
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}

工业生产 · 6个月

整体：EXPERIMENTAL；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：EXPERIMENTAL

未见严重欠覆盖阈值不等于验证通过；独立确认样本为0

最新保存官方值：103.0682（Index 2017=100）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-18

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-18；目标月：2027-03。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：1.225；从最新观察月到目标月的年化对数增长率（%），不是水平值或同比率

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 3.074，RMSE 5.629，CRPS 2.440。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：50.6% / 4.112；80%：88.2% / 8.530；95%：91.6% / 21.511

历史月度起点 178；固定非重叠起点 30（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

EXPERIMENTAL：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
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    "0.95": [
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  },
  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 0.0,
    "down": 0.325,
    "equal": 0.0,
    "relation": "below",
    "threshold": 0.0,
    "threshold_event": 0.325,
    "up": 0.675
  }
}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

{
  "target": "INDPRO",
  "horizon": 6,
  "status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "point_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "distribution_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "reasons": [
    "未见严重欠覆盖阈值不等于验证通过；独立确认样本为0"
  ],
  "forecast_id": "08b19924f5d2e7076b4b4891cc0fe03e73138f958d6b61c6fcdd875763dbf031",
  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
  "live_status": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "independent_historical_n": 0,
  "independent_shocks_n": null,
  "monthly_n": 178,
  "nonoverlapping_n": 30,
  "current": {
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    "direction_accuracy": 0.7303370786516854,
    "direction_brier": 0.22031367041198505,
    "distribution_n": 178,
    "end": "2025-10-31",
    "event_bins": [
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      },
      {
        "lower": 0.1,
        "mean_probability": 0.18135964912280703,
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      },
      {
        "lower": 0.4,
        "mean_probability": 0.39999999999999997,
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    "mae_block_ci95": {
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      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 1.5088833313104049,
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      "repetitions": 1999,
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        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.3857662023016354,
        "observed_months": 148,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.7330016869871943
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        "calendar_months": 178,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.9618173810921903,
        "observed_months": 148,
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        "upper95": 0.9943820224719101
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    "pi95": {
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        "calendar_months": 178,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.98,
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        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
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      "n": 148,
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  "lag1": 0.8180666669486412,
  "signed_bias": 1.0081829533439837,
  "conclusion": "可查看实验点预测；概率可靠性与跨时期稳定性未独立确认。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

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          "upper95": 4.554004986139217
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        "crps_n": 178,
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        "n": 178,
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    "horizon": 6,
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    "input": {
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        "provider": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)",
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      "No demonstrated predictive edge; unvalidated event probabilities",
      "Day-end archive availability, not intraday publisher timestamp",
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      "First archive availability is not proven first publisher release",
      "Overlapping residuals; no coverage guarantee; no parameter CI or probability uncertainty estimate",
      "Calibration uses frozen Phase 3B 90-day labels; new live labels are not yet available",
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    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
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      "measure": "annualized_log_growth",
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      "units": "annualized log percent"
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    "target_id": "INDPRO",
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  "publisher_evidence": {
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    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
    "release_date": "2026-09-18",
    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
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    "series_id": "INDPRO",
    "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/20260918/default.htm",
    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.912775+00:00"
  }
}

工业生产 · 12个月

整体：EXPERIMENTAL；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：EXPERIMENTAL

未见严重欠覆盖阈值不等于验证通过；独立确认样本为0

最新保存官方值：103.0682（Index 2017=100）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-18

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-18；目标月：2027-09。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：1.063；从最新观察月到目标月的年化对数增长率（%），不是水平值或同比率

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 2.488，RMSE 3.831，CRPS 1.902。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：53.5% / 3.555；80%：85.5% / 8.679；95%：94.2% / 16.732

历史月度起点 172；固定非重叠起点 15（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

EXPERIMENTAL：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
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    "0.95": [
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  },
  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 0.0,
    "down": 0.3,
    "equal": 0.0,
    "relation": "below",
    "threshold": 0.0,
    "threshold_event": 0.3,
    "up": 0.7
  }
}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

{
  "target": "INDPRO",
  "horizon": 12,
  "status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "point_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "distribution_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "reasons": [
    "未见严重欠覆盖阈值不等于验证通过；独立确认样本为0"
  ],
  "forecast_id": "429fb475f8083f692f7367c040ab1982b662fd81fadb81d29cfa54396e3a20ae",
  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
  "live_status": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "independent_historical_n": 0,
  "independent_shocks_n": null,
  "monthly_n": 172,
  "nonoverlapping_n": 15,
  "current": {
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    "direction_accuracy": 0.7558139534883721,
    "direction_brier": 0.20243297803617566,
    "distribution_n": 172,
    "end": "2025-04-25",
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      },
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    ],
    "event_brier": 0.20243297803617566,
    "event_ece": 0.14476744186046514,
    "mae": 2.4883378245869903,
    "mae_block_ci95": {
      "block_months": 24,
      "calendar_months": 172,
      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 1.4049714671012346,
      "observed_months": 172,
      "p_value": 0.001,
      "repetitions": 1999,
      "status": "computed",
      "upper95": 3.9568745456402956
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    "n": 172,
    "pi50": {
      "coverage": 0.5348837209302325,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 172,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.3430232558139535,
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      "year": "2025"
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  ],
  "crisis_excluded": {
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    "direction_accuracy": 0.8014705882352942,
    "direction_brier": 0.17519352532679738,
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    "event_bins": [
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    "mae_block_ci95": {
      "block_months": 24,
      "calendar_months": 172,
      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 1.222030874352437,
      "observed_months": 136,
      "p_value": 0.0005,
      "repetitions": 1999,
      "status": "computed",
      "upper95": 2.2744809198716354
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    "n": 136,
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      "coverage": 0.625,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 172,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.4344192406692407,
        "observed_months": 136,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.769790539250016
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      "n": 136,
      "width": 3.63505332932635
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    "pi80": {
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      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 172,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.9553504797441366,
        "observed_months": 136,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 1.0
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      "n": 136,
      "width": 9.27938097692795
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    "pi95": {
      "coverage": 1.0,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 172,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 1.0,
        "observed_months": 136,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 1.0
      },
      "n": 136,
      "width": 17.779019034000633
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    "positive_origin_months": 27,
    "positive_spells": 7,
    "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
    "raw_point_mae": 2.010277784683725,
    "rmse": 2.072773485577982,
    "start": "2011-01-28",
    "status": "computed",
    "training_scaled_mae": 0.3855460211567947
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  "lag1": 0.8772143000267035,
  "signed_bias": 0.951284774171106,
  "conclusion": "可查看实验点预测；概率可靠性与跨时期稳定性未独立确认。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

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          {
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          "lower95": null,
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          "status": "insufficient_months",
          "upper95": null
        },
        "n": 15,
        "pi50": {
          "coverage": 0.6,
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            "lower95": null,
            "p_value": 1.0,
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            "upper95": null
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          "n": 15,
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        "pi80": {
          "coverage": 0.9333333333333333,
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            "upper95": null
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          "n": 15,
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        "pi95": {
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            "status": "insufficient_months",
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        "training_scaled_mae": 0.4154140505429904
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      "series": "INDPRO",
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          "lower95": -0.025117160745453056,
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          "p_value": 0.2525,
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          "upper95": 0.05119743279484888
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        "crps_n": 172,
        "mae_improvement": 0.02709685406190654,
        "mae_improvement_ci95": {
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          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": -0.04155576361375043,
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          "p_value": 0.229,
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          "upper95": 0.09591595906657532
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        "n": 172,
        "relative_mae_improvement": 0.010772235229125862
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      "vs_persistence": {
        "crps_improvement": 0.0,
        "crps_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 172,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0,
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          "p_value": 1.0,
          "repetitions": 1999,
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        "crps_n": 172,
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        "mae_improvement_ci95": {
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        "n": 172,
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    "horizon": 12,
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    "input": {
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      "input_rows": [
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      "metadata": {
        "frequency": "Monthly",
        "provider": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)",
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    "limitations": [
      "No demonstrated predictive edge; unvalidated event probabilities",
      "Day-end archive availability, not intraday publisher timestamp",
      "Information set stops at official metadata coverage; no extrapolation through requested cutoff",
      "First archive availability is not proven first publisher release",
      "Overlapping residuals; no coverage guarantee; no parameter CI or probability uncertainty estimate",
      "Calibration uses frozen Phase 3B 90-day labels; new live labels are not yet available",
      "Growth horizon is measured from origin month; anchor can precede origin",
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    "model_id": "persistence",
    "model_version": "3C.1.0",
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    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
    "requested_information_cutoff": "2026-09-21",
    "target_date": "2027-09-30",
    "target_definition": {
      "event": "below",
      "measure": "annualized_log_growth",
      "name": "Industrial production growth",
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "units": "annualized log percent"
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    "target_id": "INDPRO",
    "target_month": "2027-09",
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  "publisher_evidence": {
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    "evidence_file": "reports/phase3c1/g17-release-header.json",
    "evidence_retrieved_at": null,
    "evidence_time_note": "Web connector does not expose exact retrieval time; verified_at is local registration time",
    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
    "release_date": "2026-09-18",
    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
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    "series_id": "INDPRO",
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    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.912775+00:00"
  }
}

非农就业 · 3个月

整体：UNRELIABLE；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：UNRELIABLE

历史覆盖率低于标称超过10个百分点：pi80

最新保存官方值：159,075.0000（Thousands of Persons）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-04

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-04；目标月：2026-12。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：1.581；从最新观察月到目标月的年化对数增长率（%），不是水平值或同比率

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 1.866，RMSE 6.171，CRPS 1.779。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：41.1% / 1.098；80%：62.2% / 3.147；95%：88.9% / 15.245

历史月度起点 180；固定非重叠起点 60（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

UNRELIABLE：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
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    ],
    "0.8": [
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    ],
    "0.95": [
      -23.955904396367554,
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  },
  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 0.0,
    "down": 0.075,
    "equal": 0.0,
    "relation": "below",
    "threshold": 0.0,
    "threshold_event": 0.075,
    "up": 0.925
  }
}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

{
  "target": "PAYEMS",
  "horizon": 3,
  "status": "UNRELIABLE",
  "point_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "distribution_status": "UNRELIABLE",
  "reasons": [
    "历史覆盖率低于标称超过10个百分点：pi80"
  ],
  "forecast_id": "720b3042b82dbc0d67996fb5a967e3c8d4114acba237dc4b9d8e8ddd90ab9b0a",
  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
  "live_status": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "independent_historical_n": 0,
  "independent_shocks_n": null,
  "monthly_n": 180,
  "nonoverlapping_n": 60,
  "current": {
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    "end": "2025-12-26",
    "event_bins": [
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      },
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    ],
    "event_brier": 0.08189506172839507,
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    "mae": 1.8656581835267352,
    "mae_block_ci95": {
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      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 0.46615137020125347,
      "observed_months": 180,
      "p_value": 0.0555,
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      "status": "computed",
      "upper95": 4.229821502514652
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    "n": 180,
    "pi50": {
      "coverage": 0.4111111111111111,
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        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.23861111111111113,
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    "pi80": {
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        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.43333333333333335,
        "observed_months": 180,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.8002777777777775
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      "n": 180,
      "width": 3.147239717486509
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    "pi95": {
      "coverage": 0.8888888888888888,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 180,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.7555555555555555,
        "observed_months": 180,
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      "n": 180,
      "width": 15.245376771018899
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    "positive_origin_months": 9,
    "positive_spells": 3,
    "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
    "raw_point_mae": 2.8940264975390937,
    "rmse": 6.170679958320871,
    "start": "2011-01-28",
    "status": "computed",
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        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.8860375275938189
      },
      "n": 153,
      "width": 3.5009627816254705
    },
    "pi95": {
      "coverage": 0.954248366013072,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 180,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.8636363636363636,
        "observed_months": 153,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 1.0
      },
      "n": 153,
      "width": 14.837373601068434
    },
    "positive_origin_months": 4,
    "positive_spells": 2,
    "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
    "raw_point_mae": 1.6048380178267942,
    "rmse": 0.7471080979907238,
    "start": "2011-01-28",
    "status": "computed",
    "training_scaled_mae": 0.23386368985387834
  },
  "lag1": 0.6639121347600022,
  "signed_bias": 0.08904523415048611,
  "conclusion": "仅供实验点预测；未证明稳定独立优势。分布严重欠覆盖。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

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          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.11786712648266645
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        "n": 180,
        "relative_mae_improvement": 0.035904391282080936
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      "vs_persistence": {
        "crps_improvement": 0.0,
        "crps_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 180,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0,
          "observed_months": 180,
          "p_value": 1.0,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
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        },
        "crps_n": 180,
        "mae_improvement": 0.0,
        "mae_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 180,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0,
          "observed_months": 180,
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          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.0
        },
        "n": 180,
        "relative_mae_improvement": 0.0
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    },
    "horizon": 3,
    "information_cutoff": "2026-09-04",
    "input": {
      "actual": {
        "available_from": "2026-09-04",
        "available_to": "9999-12-31",
        "kind": "alfred_interval",
        "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
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      "age_days": 34,
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      "event": "below",
      "input_rows": [
        {
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      "metadata": {
        "frequency": "Monthly",
        "provider": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "release": "Employment Situation",
        "seasonal_adjustment": "Seasonally Adjusted",
        "title": "All Employees, Total Nonfarm",
        "units": "Thousands of Persons"
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      "reference": 0.0,
      "threshold": 0.0
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    "latest_actual": {
      "available_from": "2026-09-04",
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      "kind": "alfred_interval",
      "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
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      "series_id": "PAYEMS",
      "value": 159075.0
    },
    "limitations": [
      "No demonstrated predictive edge; unvalidated event probabilities",
      "Day-end archive availability, not intraday publisher timestamp",
      "Information set stops at official metadata coverage; no extrapolation through requested cutoff",
      "First archive availability is not proven first publisher release",
      "Overlapping residuals; no coverage guarantee; no parameter CI or probability uncertainty estimate",
      "Calibration uses frozen Phase 3B 90-day labels; new live labels are not yet available",
      "Growth horizon is measured from origin month; anchor can precede origin",
      "Historical performance is retrospective, not live performance"
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    "model_id": "persistence",
    "model_version": "3C.1.0",
    "origin_month": "2026-09",
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      "probability_estimate_uncertainty": null,
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      "uncertainty_limit": "Predictive residual distribution only; no exchangeability or coverage guarantee"
    },
    "primary_scoring_vintage": "target month end + 90 days; first archive and later revisions are separate diagnostics",
    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
    "requested_information_cutoff": "2026-09-21",
    "target_date": "2026-12-31",
    "target_definition": {
      "event": "below",
      "measure": "annualized_log_growth",
      "name": "Nonfarm employment growth",
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "units": "annualized log percent"
    },
    "target_id": "PAYEMS",
    "target_month": "2026-12",
    "units": "annualized log percent",
    "validation_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
  },
  "publisher_evidence": {
    "evidence_checksum": "d48207f18631f695e0072a21bf29bcc3f970483c02ff91772a98289ace618d0c",
    "evidence_file": "reports/phase3c1/release-web-evidence.json",
    "evidence_retrieved_at": null,
    "evidence_time_note": "Web connector does not expose exact retrieval time; verified_at is local registration time",
    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
    "release_date": "2026-09-04",
    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
    "scope": "Publisher date of the August 2026 release; not proof of every later revised value",
    "series_id": "PAYEMS",
    "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm",
    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.880350+00:00"
  }
}

非农就业 · 6个月

整体：UNRELIABLE；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：UNRELIABLE

历史覆盖率低于标称超过10个百分点：pi50, pi80, pi95

最新保存官方值：159,075.0000（Thousands of Persons）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-04

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-04；目标月：2027-03。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：1.602；从最新观察月到目标月的年化对数增长率（%），不是水平值或同比率

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 1.615，RMSE 4.108，CRPS 1.532。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：36.5% / 1.010；80%：52.2% / 3.320；95%：78.1% / 11.204

历史月度起点 178；固定非重叠起点 30（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

UNRELIABLE：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
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    "0.8": [
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    ],
    "0.95": [
      -14.67227201683725,
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  },
  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 0.0,
    "down": 0.09166666666666666,
    "equal": 0.0,
    "relation": "below",
    "threshold": 0.0,
    "threshold_event": 0.09166666666666666,
    "up": 0.9083333333333333
  }
}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

{
  "target": "PAYEMS",
  "horizon": 6,
  "status": "UNRELIABLE",
  "point_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "distribution_status": "UNRELIABLE",
  "reasons": [
    "历史覆盖率低于标称超过10个百分点：pi50, pi80, pi95"
  ],
  "forecast_id": "4ded21ff2ce2e29c76454bcaffbaac6105cb44e4aea0d34a464376a8ab60c185",
  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
  "live_status": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "independent_historical_n": 0,
  "independent_shocks_n": null,
  "monthly_n": 178,
  "nonoverlapping_n": 30,
  "current": {
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    "end": "2025-10-31",
    "event_bins": [
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    "event_brier": 0.09159449126092388,
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    "mae_block_ci95": {
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      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 0.4739154728841476,
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        "upper95": 0.5789325842696627
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    "pi80": {
      "coverage": 0.5224719101123596,
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        "calendar_months": 178,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.29213483146067415,
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        "p_value": 0.0005,
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        "upper95": 0.7415730337078652
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      "width": 3.3196204613355387
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    "pi95": {
      "coverage": 0.7808988764044944,
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        "calendar_months": 178,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.5617977528089888,
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      "n": 178,
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    "positive_origin_months": 11,
    "positive_spells": 3,
    "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
    "raw_point_mae": 2.6062294710602116,
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    "status": "computed",
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    ],
    "event_brier": 0.09159449126092388,
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    "mae": 1.6147668299052462,
    "mae_block_ci95": {
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      "calendar_months": 178,
      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 0.4739154728841476,
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      "status": "computed",
      "upper95": 3.3964157515521274
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    "n": 178,
    "pi50": {
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      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 178,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.15730337078651685,
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      "n": 178,
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    "pi80": {
      "coverage": 0.5224719101123596,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 178,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.29213483146067415,
        "observed_months": 178,
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        "upper95": 0.7415730337078652
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      "n": 178,
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    "pi95": {
      "coverage": 0.7808988764044944,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 178,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.5617977528089888,
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  "lag1": 0.7577556339763742,
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  "conclusion": "仅供实验点预测；未证明稳定独立优势。分布严重欠覆盖。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

{
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          "label_vintage": "2016-08-29"
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        {
          "available_at": "2016-09-28",
          "cutoff": "2015-12-25",
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          "label_vintage": "2016-09-28"
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      "series_id": "PAYEMS",
      "value": 159075.0
    },
    "limitations": [
      "No demonstrated predictive edge; unvalidated event probabilities",
      "Day-end archive availability, not intraday publisher timestamp",
      "Information set stops at official metadata coverage; no extrapolation through requested cutoff",
      "First archive availability is not proven first publisher release",
      "Overlapping residuals; no coverage guarantee; no parameter CI or probability uncertainty estimate",
      "Calibration uses frozen Phase 3B 90-day labels; new live labels are not yet available",
      "Growth horizon is measured from origin month; anchor can precede origin",
      "Historical performance is retrospective, not live performance"
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    "model_id": "persistence",
    "model_version": "3C.1.0",
    "origin_month": "2026-09",
    "outcome_definition": "UNRATE target level; other targets annualized log growth from anchor to target, both endpoints in outcome vintage",
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      "probability_estimate_uncertainty": null,
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      "uncertainty_limit": "Predictive residual distribution only; no exchangeability or coverage guarantee"
    },
    "primary_scoring_vintage": "target month end + 90 days; first archive and later revisions are separate diagnostics",
    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
    "requested_information_cutoff": "2026-09-21",
    "target_date": "2027-03-31",
    "target_definition": {
      "event": "below",
      "measure": "annualized_log_growth",
      "name": "Nonfarm employment growth",
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "units": "annualized log percent"
    },
    "target_id": "PAYEMS",
    "target_month": "2027-03",
    "units": "annualized log percent",
    "validation_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
  },
  "publisher_evidence": {
    "evidence_checksum": "d48207f18631f695e0072a21bf29bcc3f970483c02ff91772a98289ace618d0c",
    "evidence_file": "reports/phase3c1/release-web-evidence.json",
    "evidence_retrieved_at": null,
    "evidence_time_note": "Web connector does not expose exact retrieval time; verified_at is local registration time",
    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
    "release_date": "2026-09-04",
    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
    "scope": "Publisher date of the August 2026 release; not proof of every later revised value",
    "series_id": "PAYEMS",
    "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm",
    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.880350+00:00"
  }
}

非农就业 · 12个月

整体：UNRELIABLE；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：UNRELIABLE

历史覆盖率低于标称超过10个百分点：pi50, pi80, pi95

最新保存官方值：159,075.0000（Thousands of Persons）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-04

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-04；目标月：2027-09。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：1.589；从最新观察月到目标月的年化对数增长率（%），不是水平值或同比率

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 1.494，RMSE 2.795，CRPS 1.360。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：27.9% / 1.039；80%：53.5% / 4.979；95%：68.0% / 7.660

历史月度起点 172；固定非重叠起点 15（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

UNRELIABLE：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
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    "0.95": [
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  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 0.0,
    "down": 0.10833333333333334,
    "equal": 0.0,
    "relation": "below",
    "threshold": 0.0,
    "threshold_event": 0.10833333333333334,
    "up": 0.8916666666666667
  }
}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

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  "point_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
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  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
  "live_status": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "independent_historical_n": 0,
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        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
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      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
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  "conclusion": "仅供实验点预测；未证明稳定独立优势。分布严重欠覆盖。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

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      "uncertainty_limit": "Predictive residual distribution only; no exchangeability or coverage guarantee"
    },
    "primary_scoring_vintage": "target month end + 90 days; first archive and later revisions are separate diagnostics",
    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
    "requested_information_cutoff": "2026-09-21",
    "target_date": "2027-09-30",
    "target_definition": {
      "event": "below",
      "measure": "annualized_log_growth",
      "name": "Nonfarm employment growth",
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "units": "annualized log percent"
    },
    "target_id": "PAYEMS",
    "target_month": "2027-09",
    "units": "annualized log percent",
    "validation_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
  },
  "publisher_evidence": {
    "evidence_checksum": "d48207f18631f695e0072a21bf29bcc3f970483c02ff91772a98289ace618d0c",
    "evidence_file": "reports/phase3c1/release-web-evidence.json",
    "evidence_retrieved_at": null,
    "evidence_time_note": "Web connector does not expose exact retrieval time; verified_at is local registration time",
    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
    "release_date": "2026-09-04",
    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
    "scope": "Publisher date of the August 2026 release; not proof of every later revised value",
    "series_id": "PAYEMS",
    "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm",
    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.880350+00:00"
  }
}

CPI 通胀 · 3个月

整体：EXPERIMENTAL；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：EXPERIMENTAL

未见严重欠覆盖阈值不等于验证通过；独立确认样本为0

最新保存官方值：334.1310（Index 1982-1984=100）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-11

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-11；目标月：2026-12。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：2.617；从最新观察月到目标月的年化对数增长率（%），不是水平值或同比率

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 1.735，RMSE 2.523，CRPS 1.369。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：51.1% / 2.379；80%：79.3% / 5.363；95%：88.5% / 10.885

历史月度起点 174；固定非重叠起点 58（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

EXPERIMENTAL：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
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    "0.95": [
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  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 4.033444287559235,
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    "equal": 0.0,
    "relation": "above",
    "threshold": 4.533444287559235,
    "threshold_event": 0.15833333333333333,
    "up": 0.2
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}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

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  "target": "CPIAUCSL",
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  "point_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
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  "forecast_id": "8a1748151ad401d8831ef7d4284ef1f4b51df332153108ece355c98b38400d64",
  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
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  "independent_historical_n": 0,
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  "lag1": 0.9058859721404628,
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  "conclusion": "可查看实验点预测；概率可靠性与跨时期稳定性未独立确认。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

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          "observation_date": "2026-03-01",
          "release_date": null,
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          "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
          "value": 330.293
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        {
          "available_from": "2026-03-11",
          "available_to": "9999-12-31",
          "kind": "alfred_interval",
          "observation_date": "2026-02-01",
          "release_date": null,
          "request_id": "367ab378ab31df19c71dc29fe157c71558f34b0c5d0773b725f33c60a29844c4",
          "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
          "value": 327.46
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      ],
      "metadata": {
        "frequency": "Monthly",
        "provider": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "release": "Consumer Price Index",
        "seasonal_adjustment": "Seasonally Adjusted",
        "title": "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average",
        "units": "Index 1982-1984=100"
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      "reference": 4.033444287559235,
      "threshold": 4.533444287559235
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    "latest_actual": {
      "available_from": "2026-09-11",
      "available_to": "9999-12-31",
      "kind": "alfred_interval",
      "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
      "release_date": null,
      "request_id": "367ab378ab31df19c71dc29fe157c71558f34b0c5d0773b725f33c60a29844c4",
      "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
      "value": 334.131
    },
    "limitations": [
      "No demonstrated predictive edge; unvalidated event probabilities",
      "Day-end archive availability, not intraday publisher timestamp",
      "Information set stops at official metadata coverage; no extrapolation through requested cutoff",
      "First archive availability is not proven first publisher release",
      "Overlapping residuals; no coverage guarantee; no parameter CI or probability uncertainty estimate",
      "Calibration uses frozen Phase 3B 90-day labels; new live labels are not yet available",
      "Growth horizon is measured from origin month; anchor can precede origin",
      "Historical performance is retrospective, not live performance"
    ],
    "model_id": "persistence",
    "model_version": "3C.1.0",
    "origin_month": "2026-09",
    "outcome_definition": "UNRATE target level; other targets annualized log growth from anchor to target, both endpoints in outcome vintage",
    "point_forecast": {
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      "uncertainty_limit": "Predictive residual distribution only; no exchangeability or coverage guarantee"
    },
    "primary_scoring_vintage": "target month end + 90 days; first archive and later revisions are separate diagnostics",
    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
    "requested_information_cutoff": "2026-09-21",
    "target_date": "2026-12-31",
    "target_definition": {
      "event": "above",
      "measure": "annualized_log_growth",
      "name": "Headline CPI inflation",
      "threshold_change": 0.5,
      "units": "annualized log percent"
    },
    "target_id": "CPIAUCSL",
    "target_month": "2026-12",
    "units": "annualized log percent",
    "validation_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
  },
  "publisher_evidence": {
    "evidence_checksum": "d48207f18631f695e0072a21bf29bcc3f970483c02ff91772a98289ace618d0c",
    "evidence_file": "reports/phase3c1/release-web-evidence.json",
    "evidence_retrieved_at": null,
    "evidence_time_note": "Web connector does not expose exact retrieval time; verified_at is local registration time",
    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
    "release_date": "2026-09-11",
    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
    "scope": "Publisher date of the August 2026 release; not proof of every later revised value",
    "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
    "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm",
    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.896215+00:00"
  }
}

CPI 通胀 · 6个月

整体：EXPERIMENTAL；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：EXPERIMENTAL

未见严重欠覆盖阈值不等于验证通过；独立确认样本为0

最新保存官方值：334.1310（Index 1982-1984=100）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-11

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-11；目标月：2027-03。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：2.480；从最新观察月到目标月的年化对数增长率（%），不是水平值或同比率

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 1.541，RMSE 2.305，CRPS 1.238。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：48.0% / 1.812；80%：77.2% / 4.342；95%：89.5% / 8.410

历史月度起点 171；固定非重叠起点 29（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

EXPERIMENTAL：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
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  "event_probabilities": {
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    "equal": 0.0,
    "relation": "above",
    "threshold": 4.533444287559235,
    "threshold_event": 0.15833333333333333,
    "up": 0.18333333333333332
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}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

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  "point_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
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  "forecast_id": "2e99b14e81400d7051d1d4bd2a476a1c820d7e58c03a42e2205272d22145fc8a",
  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
  "live_status": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "independent_historical_n": 0,
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    "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
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  "lag1": 0.9666072134985498,
  "signed_bias": -0.5217680347128798,
  "conclusion": "可查看实验点预测；概率可靠性与跨时期稳定性未独立确认。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

{
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          "upper95": 0.10774885028315404
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        "crps_n": 171,
        "mae_improvement": 0.005263937294468135,
        "mae_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 171,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": -0.14861626865341943,
          "observed_months": 171,
          "p_value": 0.4765,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.14558801247825087
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        "n": 171,
        "relative_mae_improvement": 0.003403910845454367
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      "vs_persistence": {
        "crps_improvement": 0.0,
        "crps_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 171,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0,
          "observed_months": 171,
          "p_value": 1.0,
          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.0
        },
        "crps_n": 171,
        "mae_improvement": 0.0,
        "mae_improvement_ci95": {
          "block_months": 24,
          "calendar_months": 171,
          "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
          "lower95": 0.0,
          "observed_months": 171,
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          "repetitions": 1999,
          "status": "computed",
          "upper95": 0.0
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        "n": 171,
        "relative_mae_improvement": 0.0
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    },
    "horizon": 6,
    "information_cutoff": "2026-09-11",
    "input": {
      "actual": {
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      "anchor_month": "2026-08",
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      "event": "above",
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      "metadata": {
        "frequency": "Monthly",
        "provider": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "release": "Consumer Price Index",
        "seasonal_adjustment": "Seasonally Adjusted",
        "title": "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average",
        "units": "Index 1982-1984=100"
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    "latest_actual": {
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      "kind": "alfred_interval",
      "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
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      "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
      "value": 334.131
    },
    "limitations": [
      "No demonstrated predictive edge; unvalidated event probabilities",
      "Day-end archive availability, not intraday publisher timestamp",
      "Information set stops at official metadata coverage; no extrapolation through requested cutoff",
      "First archive availability is not proven first publisher release",
      "Overlapping residuals; no coverage guarantee; no parameter CI or probability uncertainty estimate",
      "Calibration uses frozen Phase 3B 90-day labels; new live labels are not yet available",
      "Growth horizon is measured from origin month; anchor can precede origin",
      "Historical performance is retrospective, not live performance"
    ],
    "model_id": "persistence",
    "model_version": "3C.1.0",
    "origin_month": "2026-09",
    "outcome_definition": "UNRATE target level; other targets annualized log growth from anchor to target, both endpoints in outcome vintage",
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      "uncertainty_limit": "Predictive residual distribution only; no exchangeability or coverage guarantee"
    },
    "primary_scoring_vintage": "target month end + 90 days; first archive and later revisions are separate diagnostics",
    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
    "requested_information_cutoff": "2026-09-21",
    "target_date": "2027-03-31",
    "target_definition": {
      "event": "above",
      "measure": "annualized_log_growth",
      "name": "Headline CPI inflation",
      "threshold_change": 0.5,
      "units": "annualized log percent"
    },
    "target_id": "CPIAUCSL",
    "target_month": "2027-03",
    "units": "annualized log percent",
    "validation_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
  },
  "publisher_evidence": {
    "evidence_checksum": "d48207f18631f695e0072a21bf29bcc3f970483c02ff91772a98289ace618d0c",
    "evidence_file": "reports/phase3c1/release-web-evidence.json",
    "evidence_retrieved_at": null,
    "evidence_time_note": "Web connector does not expose exact retrieval time; verified_at is local registration time",
    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
    "release_date": "2026-09-11",
    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
    "scope": "Publisher date of the August 2026 release; not proof of every later revised value",
    "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
    "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm",
    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.896215+00:00"
  }
}

CPI 通胀 · 12个月

整体：EXPERIMENTAL；点预测：EXPERIMENTAL；分布：EXPERIMENTAL

未见严重欠覆盖阈值不等于验证通过；独立确认样本为0

最新保存官方值：334.1310（Index 1982-1984=100）；观察日期 2026-08-01；官方发布日期 2026-09-11

预测生成：2026-09-22T12:09:55.683270+00:00；信息截止：2026-09-11；目标月：2027-09。发布日期核验只对当前观察期有效。

实验点预测（中位数）：2.402；从最新观察月到目标月的年化对数增长率（%），不是水平值或同比率

当前 persistence + rolling120；历史 MAE 1.477，RMSE 2.169，CRPS 1.183。无独立增量优势证据。

历史覆盖率 / 平均宽度：50%：42.4% / 1.375；80%：73.9% / 3.470；95%：86.1% / 5.541

历史月度起点 165；固定非重叠起点 14（仍非独立冲击）；未参与研究的独立确认样本 0。历史：RETROSPECTIVE_OOS；实时：INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE。

EXPERIMENTAL：查看未验证实验区间与概率（非可靠正式结果）

{
  "warning": "预测分布未验证；预测区间不是参数置信区间；概率估计不确定性不可用",
  "prediction_intervals": {
    "0.5": [
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    "0.95": [
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  },
  "event_probabilities": {
    "direction_reference": 4.033444287559235,
    "down": 0.7916666666666666,
    "equal": 0.0,
    "relation": "above",
    "threshold": 4.533444287559235,
    "threshold_event": 0.2,
    "up": 0.20833333333333334
  }
}

历史基准比较、年度稳定性与局限

{
  "target": "CPIAUCSL",
  "horizon": 12,
  "status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "point_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "distribution_status": "EXPERIMENTAL",
  "reasons": [
    "未见严重欠覆盖阈值不等于验证通过；独立确认样本为0"
  ],
  "forecast_id": "637a0c49fe62af013bade05838f79b64dbfae7e717a7e468580a4130915fbaf4",
  "historical_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OOS",
  "live_status": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "independent_historical_n": 0,
  "independent_shocks_n": null,
  "monthly_n": 165,
  "nonoverlapping_n": 14,
  "current": {
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    "distribution_n": 165,
    "end": "2024-09-27",
    "event_bins": [
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      },
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      {
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        "mean_probability": 0.6466666666666667,
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      {
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      {
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    ],
    "event_brier": 0.16164309764309764,
    "event_ece": 0.20232323232323232,
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      "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
      "lower95": 0.7419340605245235,
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      "p_value": 0.004,
      "repetitions": 1999,
      "status": "computed",
      "upper95": 2.5010678487153646
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    "n": 165,
    "pi50": {
      "coverage": 0.42424242424242425,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 165,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.2,
        "observed_months": 165,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.6424242424242425
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      "n": 165,
      "width": 1.3745280436822103
    },
    "pi80": {
      "coverage": 0.7393939393939394,
      "coverage_ci95": {
        "block_months": 24,
        "calendar_months": 165,
        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.49696969696969695,
        "observed_months": 165,
        "p_value": 0.0005,
        "repetitions": 1999,
        "status": "computed",
        "upper95": 0.9393939393939394
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      "n": 165,
      "width": 3.469651558597912
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    "pi95": {
      "coverage": 0.8606060606060606,
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        "caveat": "Dependent overlapping horizons, calendar gaps and few independent cycles limit bootstrap reliability",
        "lower95": 0.6363636363636364,
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      },
      "n": 165,
      "width": 5.541012162163505
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    "positive_origin_months": 46,
    "positive_spells": 12,
    "positive_spells_caveat": "Contiguous threshold-target origin runs, not independent economic shocks",
    "raw_point_mae": 2.569868541395969,
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  "conclusion": "可查看实验点预测；概率可靠性与跨时期稳定性未独立确认。"
}

追溯原始预测、数据与模型版本

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          "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
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        {
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          "kind": "alfred_interval",
          "observation_date": "2026-02-01",
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          "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
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      ],
      "metadata": {
        "frequency": "Monthly",
        "provider": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
        "release": "Consumer Price Index",
        "seasonal_adjustment": "Seasonally Adjusted",
        "title": "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average",
        "units": "Index 1982-1984=100"
      },
      "reference": 4.033444287559235,
      "threshold": 4.533444287559235
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    "latest_actual": {
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      "available_to": "9999-12-31",
      "kind": "alfred_interval",
      "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
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      "request_id": "367ab378ab31df19c71dc29fe157c71558f34b0c5d0773b725f33c60a29844c4",
      "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
      "value": 334.131
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    "limitations": [
      "No demonstrated predictive edge; unvalidated event probabilities",
      "Day-end archive availability, not intraday publisher timestamp",
      "Information set stops at official metadata coverage; no extrapolation through requested cutoff",
      "First archive availability is not proven first publisher release",
      "Overlapping residuals; no coverage guarantee; no parameter CI or probability uncertainty estimate",
      "Calibration uses frozen Phase 3B 90-day labels; new live labels are not yet available",
      "Growth horizon is measured from origin month; anchor can precede origin",
      "Historical performance is retrospective, not live performance"
    ],
    "model_id": "persistence",
    "model_version": "3C.1.0",
    "origin_month": "2026-09",
    "outcome_definition": "UNRATE target level; other targets annualized log growth from anchor to target, both endpoints in outcome vintage",
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    "primary_scoring_vintage": "target month end + 90 days; first archive and later revisions are separate diagnostics",
    "record_type": "LIVE_FORECAST",
    "requested_information_cutoff": "2026-09-21",
    "target_date": "2027-09-30",
    "target_definition": {
      "event": "above",
      "measure": "annualized_log_growth",
      "name": "Headline CPI inflation",
      "threshold_change": 0.5,
      "units": "annualized log percent"
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    "target_id": "CPIAUCSL",
    "target_month": "2027-09",
    "units": "annualized log percent",
    "validation_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
  },
  "publisher_evidence": {
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    "evidence_file": "reports/phase3c1/release-web-evidence.json",
    "evidence_retrieved_at": null,
    "evidence_time_note": "Web connector does not expose exact retrieval time; verified_at is local registration time",
    "observation_date": "2026-08-01",
    "release_date": "2026-09-11",
    "representation": "official page extracted by web tool; direct HTTP returned 403",
    "scope": "Publisher date of the August 2026 release; not proof of every later revised value",
    "series_id": "CPIAUCSL",
    "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112026.htm",
    "verified_at": "2026-09-22T12:35:37.896215+00:00"
  }
}

真正实时成绩

已保存 12 条实时预测；已评价 0 条；评价事件 0。LIVE-VALIDATED：0。

修订事件不增加独立样本；首次存档不等于已核实官方首发；没有自动晋级。

实时成绩：按目标、期限、模型与结果版本分组

{
  "issued_forecasts": 12,
  "evaluated_forecasts": 0,
  "evaluation_events": 0,
  "groups": [],
  "events": [],
  "live_validated_targets": 0,
  "caveat": "修订事件不增加独立样本；首次存档不等于已核实官方首发；没有自动晋级。"
}

历史预测账本（不可变原记录）

[
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      "historical_dataset_id": "14d979068a64284b9b5cc7f1b611bd01a9899675a73303b5f0db955d6a2ba14c",
      "historical_run_id": "34d2637c4beed41deb69ddba0f9c5e892fb8592ecd2304e3fe05a5241e5c6018",
      "residuals": [
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        {
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        },
        {
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        "pi95": {
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        "raw_point_mae": 1.2454545454545454,
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        "start": "2011-01-28",
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        "training_scaled_mae": 1.4120431909535387
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      "horizon": 12,
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        ],
        "event_brier": 0.10831845238095236,
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        "mae_block_ci95": {
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          "status": "insufficient_months",
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        },
        "n": 14,
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        "pi80": {
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          "lower95": 0.013586599464893755,
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      "vs_persistence": {
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          "lower95": 0.0,
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]